Introduction
Hey folks!
It’s been an incredibly long time. A lot has taken place since my last article. Today, I can proudly call myself an engineer! I’ve completed my undergrad course in Computer Science Engineering and have also begun working at a company! How time flies!?
That being said, it has been a struggle trying to balance work and life and making time to put random rants online.
Today, I’d like to talk about confirmation bias. It’s something that’s been on the list for some time now and it’s something that we all inherently have.
What is confirmation bias?
Confirmation bias is a cognitive phenomenon where individuals favor information that aligns with their existing beliefs while disregarding evidence that contradicts them. This leads to a very skewed perception of reality and reinforces preconceived notions. Ultimately, it takes a toll on our decision-making capabilities.
In today’s world, there’s way too much information and I think we must be able to understand this to develop more critical thinking and make more informed decisions.
Origins and theoretical background
The British psychologist Peter Watson first identified the concept of confirmation bias in 1960. Watson’s experiments demonstrated that people tend to seek information confirming their hypothesis while ignoring contradicting evidence. Let’s take a closer look at the experiment that was conducted to confirm this phenomenon.
Wason’s 2-4-6 Task
Peter Wason’s seminal experiment, known as the 2-4-6 task, is a classic demonstration of confirmation bias. Participants were asked to identify a rule that applied to a sequence of three numbers. The sequence provided (2, 4, 6) conformed to the rule “ascending numbers.” However, participants often hypothesized more specific rules, such as “increasing by two,” and then sought to confirm their hypotheses by generating sequences like 8, 10, 12. They rarely tried sequences that would disconfirm their hypothesis, such as 2, 5, 8, thereby demonstrating a tendency to seek confirmatory evidence.
Implications of Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is a huge problem when it comes to formulating political opinions. People often consume news from sources that are more likely to align with their political views which would reinforce their bias. This severely hinders political discussions and contributes to social divisions. There was a study conducted by Garret in 2009 that found that individuals are more likely to seek partisan news sources, which would reinforce their political beliefs.
This bias can also find its way into science - cherry-picking of data that supports a hypothesis while ignoring data that contradicts it. This can result in flawed studies and a lack of scientific progress. Peer review and replication studies are essential to mitigate this bias.
Confirmation bias affects everyday decisions, from personal relationships to professional choices. For example, an individual might overlook red flags in a romantic partner because they are focused on the positive traits that confirm their idealized image of that person. Similarly, in business, managers might favor data that supports their strategic decisions while ignoring warning signs that suggest potential failures.
Strategies to Mitigate Confirmation Bias
Now that we’ve understood confirmation bias in more detail, let’s also cover some strategies that can help us identify and mitigate this.
- Critical Thinking: Developing critical thinking skills will help us evaluate information more objectively. Questioning assumptions and seeking out various perspectives can give us a better idea of various topics. In general, I think it’s important to be curious and seek out different perspectives.
- Awareness: Being aware of one’s own cognitive biases is the first step towards mitigating their impact. Self-reflection and mindfulness can reduce the influence of confirmation bias on decision-making.
- Diverse Information Sources: Actively seeking out information from a variety of sources can provide a more balanced view. Engaging with opposing viewpoints can challenge existing beliefs and promote open-mindedness.
Conclusion
Confirmation bias is a nasty thing to have! It’s quite difficult to identify and even more difficult to mitigate, but it’s taking a toll on our decision-making. This could closely be tied to “influencing” too - considering more people consume misinformation spread widely in social media, nudging them to formulate fictitious opinions on various topics. I think we have to encourage open-minded conversations, debates, and discussions and make a genuine effort to understand different takes and perspectives. A little curiosity would do us more good than you can imagine! :)